Súper Martes: February 5th and the Latino vote

By Matt A. Barreto, UW assistant professor of political science

In 2008, the presidential nominating process could be over by February 5^th – a full eight months before the general election in November. Some pundits have argued that shortening the primary season is a disservice to voters, providing less time to get to know the candidates and become informed. However, the buzz among observers of Latino politics is that for the first time ever, Latino voters will have a meaningful say in nominating a presidential candidate.

Yet with such a short primary calendar, can voters – Latino or otherwise – make an informed decision on the leading presidential candidates? They are certainly no worse off than in the past. At the same time that parties have front-loaded the 2008 primaries, the campaign for president has started earlier, almost two full years before the actual presidential election. Indeed, candidates are busy hosting fundraisers and giving stump speeches from California to Iowa to New York.

The point that has been often overlooked in the recent debate about the 2008 primary schedule is the opportunity for more voters, and more diverse voters to weigh in on the potential candidates. In particular, many of the states that have moved their primary date up have sizable Latino populations.

In the 2004 presidential election Latino voters were among the most prized swing voters. More than $10 million was spent on Spanish language television commercials alone, a remarkable figure considering California, Texas and New York were out of play. Researchers have regularly noted that Latinos are not a monolithic group, holding both liberal and conservative viewpoints on important policy issues. When asked to report their political ideology, Latino voters tend to split into equal thirds among liberal, moderate, and conservative. What’s more, Latinos represent the fastest growing segment of the American electorate, growing from 5.9 million in 2000 to 7.6 million in 2004, an increase of 28%. In comparison the non-Latino electorate grew by 15% from 2000 to 2004.

Thus, it makes sense that both political parties could benefit by campaigning for the Latino vote in January and February. In all three of the traditional early primary states, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Latino voters account for less than one percent of the electorate. In contrast, Latinos were 8% of the vote in Nevada in 2004; 11% in Florida; 13% in Arizona; 16% in California; 7% in New Jersey; 33% in New Mexico; and 8% in New York. For the first time ever, candidates in the primary election would have to campaign for Latino votes, hire Latino staff and consultants, and air Spanish language campaign commercials. By increasing the diversity of the electorate in the presidential primary, we increase the diversity of ideas and issues that are discussed, and perhaps the diversity of the candidates (as is the case in 2008).

Furthermore, while a majority of Latinos live in non-competitive states such as California, New York, Texas, and Illinois, Latino voters in the southwest could prove pivotal to the 2008 general election. A recent book by Tom Schaller, professor of Political Science at the University of Maryland, has suggested that the Southwest and Mountain West are growing in importance to the presidential election because they are becoming more politically diverse and ethnically diverse. New Mexico has twice been among the most competitive states in the presidential election; in Colorado, Democrat Ken Salazar won the U.S. Senate election by 4 points even as Kerry lost the presidential contest by 5 points; and Nevada was decided by just 20,000 votes in 2004 has seen 20,000 new Latino registered voters in the last two years. Although the 2008 primary schedule will be frenzied and compact, it will nonetheless provide Latino voters an opportunity to evaluate and vote on the leading contenders for president, as opposed to only the finalists.

Early States and Latino Voters in 2008